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2020-10-28 5 ENGLISH REPORTS
Profit shifting from new car market to aftermarket: We believe China’s automotive aftermarket sales, which include services (for repair and maintenance) and parts (for replacement and accessories), will grow at a 7% CAGR in 2020-25, to a Rmb1.6trn revenue opportunity by 2025. Also, the aftermarket will become the major profit driver for dealers and repair stores, at 4x the profit size of the new car distribution market, per our estimate. We believe the aftermarket growth will be supported by: 1) an increasing car parc, at a 6% CAGR in 2020-25, as the US experience suggests the vehicle population can continue to expand despite minimal growth in new car sales, and 2) an aging car parc, as we gauge the average vehicle age in China is five years as at the end of 2019, well below the US at 12 years and Japan at nine years.
An older car fleet can lead to higher maintenance and repair spending per vehicle. Luxury dealers will continue to dominate in the aftermarket: China's auto aftermarket is fragmented, with authorized dealers accounting for 50-60% market share in 2019 per our simulation. Small size mom-and-pop stores take up the majority of the rest market share, while independent repair chain stores remain minority. We expect luxury dealers, such as Zhongsheng and Meidong, to remain the mainstay after-sales channel for luxury cars sold, thanks to: 1) higher customer retention as they are less price sensitive; 2) extended warranty periods to retain the customer for a longer time; and 3) greater intention to preserve used car value, as the used car market develops over time.
Independent repair chain stores have an opportunity to shine: Meanwhile, thanks to the rapid development of e-commerce and express logistics industries, we expect independent repair chain stores, especially those backed by Internet companies / OEMs / parts makers, such as Tuhu (on its own, invested by Tencent), Tmall Car (backed by Alibaba), Jing Che Hui (backed by JD), Che Xiang Jia (backed by SAIC), and TyrePlus (backed by Michelin), to consolidate the industry with an 18ppt market share gain from mass-market dealers and mom-and-pop stores. In the US, independent auto parts retailers AutoZone (AZO.N) and O'Reilly (ORLY.O, both covered by Simeon Gutman) enjoyed 5-14% revenue CAGRs in 2000-19, and became 3x the size of the largest auto dealer group AutoNation (AN.N, covered by Armintas Sinkevicius) in the aftermarket business.
标签： ENGLISH REPORTS