【英文】摩根士丹利报告：中国汽车与共享出行行业：赢得售后市场（74页）

Profit shifting from new car market to aftermarket: We believe  China’s automotive aftermarket sales, which include services (for  repair and maintenance) and parts (for replacement and accessories),  will grow at a 7% CAGR in 2020-25, to a Rmb1.6trn revenue opportunity by 2025. Also, the aftermarket will become the major profit  driver for dealers and repair stores, at 4x the profit size of the new  car distribution market, per our estimate. We believe the aftermarket  growth will be supported by: 1) an increasing car parc, at a 6% CAGR  in 2020-25, as the US experience suggests the vehicle population can  continue to expand despite minimal growth in new car sales, and 2)  an aging car parc, as we gauge the average vehicle age in China is five  years as at the end of 2019, well below the US at 12 years and Japan  at nine years. 

An older car fleet can lead to higher maintenance and  repair spending per vehicle.  Luxury dealers will continue to dominate in the aftermarket: China's auto aftermarket is fragmented, with authorized dealers  accounting for 50-60% market share in 2019 per our simulation.  Small size mom-and-pop stores take up the majority of the rest  market share, while independent repair chain stores remain minority.  We expect luxury dealers, such as Zhongsheng and Meidong, to  remain the mainstay after-sales channel for luxury cars sold, thanks  to: 1) higher customer retention as they are less price sensitive; 2)  extended warranty periods to retain the customer for a longer time;  and 3) greater intention to preserve used car value, as the used car  market develops over time.  

Independent repair chain stores have an opportunity to shine:  Meanwhile, thanks to the rapid development of e-commerce and  express logistics industries, we expect independent repair chain  stores, especially those backed by Internet companies / OEMs / parts  makers, such as Tuhu (on its own, invested by Tencent), Tmall Car  (backed by Alibaba), Jing Che Hui (backed by JD), Che Xiang Jia  (backed by SAIC), and TyrePlus (backed by Michelin), to consolidate  the industry with an 18ppt market share gain from mass-market  dealers and mom-and-pop stores. In the US, independent auto parts  retailers AutoZone (AZO.N) and O'Reilly (ORLY.O, both covered by  Simeon Gutman) enjoyed 5-14% revenue CAGRs in 2000-19, and  became 3x the size of the largest auto dealer group AutoNation  (AN.N, covered by Armintas Sinkevicius) in the aftermarket business.