【英文】IMF报告：预计2021年中国GDP增速为7.9%（125页）

英文研究报告 2021年01月21日 06:13 管理员

Fiscal balance in the augmented scenario. Off-budget local government spending (including interest payments) remain constant over the projection period at 6.3 percent of GDP, below the 5-year average of 8.2 percent. The augmented primary deficit, which includes the on-budget fiscal deficit and off budget- spending financed by LGFV debt and government funds, is projected to increase from 12.6 percent of GDP in 2019 to 17.8 percent in 2020, before gradually decreasing to 13.4 percent in 2025.

Asset sales and withdrawals. Since 2016 the government has increasingly relied on net proceeds from land sales and asset withdrawals (e.g. use of stabilization fund balances) to finance deficit spending and tax cuts. In 2020, the proceeds from net land sales and asset drawdowns are estimated to be 7.1 percent of GDP. The DSA assumes that asset-based financing, after peaking in 2022, declines gradually relative to GDP over the projection horizon as anticipated fiscal consolidation over the medium term eases financing needs.

Interest rates and amortization. The effective interest rate for central government and local government bonds is projected to decline slightly over the medium-term to 2.2 percent in 2025 reflecting expectations of lower global and domestic interest rates relative to the past. The interest rates of off-budget borrowing (only in the augmented scenario) are assumed to be about 3 percent (based on the yield differential between sovereign bond and LGFV bank loans and other short-term instruments). Staff assume all maturing debt will be rolled over.