【英文】HSBC报告：中国房地产和物业管理行业2022年展望（75页）

英文研究报告 2021年11月26日 06:42 管理员

Against the current market backdrop, we see disproportionate downside risks to growth. Moderated contracted sales momentum has hastened issues that are already afoot amid the challenging backdrop. In quantifying the potential downside, we look at contracted sales, gross margins and the associated impact on earnings. Moderated contracted sales momentum since June may dent developers’ 4Q sales performance and as such their ability to fulfil their full year sales target. While 4Q has historically been a peak season for pre-sales, we caution that dynamics will be weaker this year due to the deteriorating sector fundamentals. Slower contracted sales translate into weaker earnings in the subsequent period, the impact of which is further exacerbated by margin compression. Moderated contracted sales For the 16 developers we track, the pace of year-to-date contracted sales growth has meaningfully weakened from 87% in 1Q21 to 35% in 2Q21, and 10% in 3Q21 as the low base effect stemming from COVID-19 dissipates.

While 4Q, being the traditional peak season for sales, offers an opportunity for catch up, select developers are more susceptible to potential contracted sales shortfalls due to the slow year-to-date progress, especially for GZ R&F, KWG and Times China. The table below demonstrates our 2021 contracted sales scenario analysis, mainly using Nov-Dec 2020 as a basis for comparison.Our coverage universe’s gross margin has been on a consistent downward trend since 2018, and contracted another 4ppt y-o-y in 1H21. Despite our downward margin revision, we believe the risk remains to the downside, in consideration of the persistently high land costs and developers’ longer term normalised gross margin guidance of 20-25%. Indeed, we believe the wide range of margin guidance reflects developers’ lack of conviction in respect to the challenging environment, as government policies continue to evolve. It appears that margins will continue on a downward trend, with no signs of bottoming in sight.