【英文】J.P.摩根报告：大中华区2022年经济展望（21页）

英文研究报告 2021年12月17日 07:51 管理员

The government has de-emphasized the importance of its growth target in recent years, e.g. no numerical growth target in the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP). But growth is still important to achieve the "double-GDP" target by 2035 (which implies an average growth rate of 4.7% in 2021-35). In 2021, the government set a conservative growth target of "above 6%" to maintain the continuity in annual growth target. If the annual growth target follows a similar trend as in prepandemic years, it will very likely be set at 5.5%-6% in 2022 and then be further revised down gradually in the following years. However, we think achieving growth in the range of 5.5%- 6% in 2022 will be quite challenging. Continuous belowtrend growth in 2021 (and a significant contraction in 3Q21) implies that significant policy easing and a notable rebound will be required to meet the growth objective, yet stimulusstyle easing is not desirable from either an economic or political perspective.

Hence, a likely outcome is that the government may lower the annual growth target in 2022 to 5%-6% (Figure 1.3), and the current policy approach will only be fine-tuned to ensure a gradual stabilization towards potential growth.With the mounting downward pressure, will the government relax or reverse these industry policies? We don’t think so. A policy reversal would damage policy creditability or even compromise political leadership. Meanwhile, policy finetuning likely will take place to avoid unintended policy consequences. The approach to policy fine-tuning could be different across industries. Fine-tuning in housing policy will aim to avoid tail risk scenarios. Property slowdown is the biggest risk factor, as disorderly corrections in the property market would lead to severe macro and financial market consequences (link).