【英文】国际危机组织报告：南海国际秩序的竞争愿景（48页）

Intensifying competition between China and the United States increasingly overshadows the intractable sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea. This contest is  commonly, if simplistically, cast as a rising China challenging the U.S.-led “rules-based  international order”, driven by an epochal power transition. Thus, China seeks influence commensurate with its growing economic and military might, starting with a  regional order that reflects its preferences. Meanwhile, the U.S. aims to preserve the  post-World War II order that it believes has underpinned relative peace and prosperity  in Asia while also serving its own interests. These paradigms clash in the South China  Sea, where some observers see a new cold war that may turn hot. 

The competition carries implications for the rights of littoral states, international law and conflict risks.  China and the U.S. share an obligation to work with each other and smaller claimant  states to develop a regional order that can absorb friction and avoid conflict.  In 2016, an ad hoc tribunal constituted under the UN Convention on the Law of  the Sea (UNCLOS) invalidated China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China  Sea, in a case brought by the Philippines. Beijing, which had refused to participate in  the legal proceedings, rejected the ruling. China doubled down on its claims, including  by changing the physical environment in a material way, most visibly through the construction and militarisation of seven artificial islands in the Spratly Islands. These  islands have in turn facilitated the pervasive maritime presence of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, the Chinese Coast Guard and China’s maritime militia.