【英文】HSBC报告：2022Q1全球宏观经济展望（126页）

英文研究报告 2022年01月14日 06:41 管理员

If instead of normalising, job vacancies stay high and labour costs in the US rise without improved productivity, companies could either shed labour, possibly even halting production, or prices could continue to rise, sowing the seeds of a wage-price spiral as inflation expectations jump higher. In this scenario, the Fed would discover that its initial steps to tighten monetary conditions have been too cautious: inflation would prove to be an even bigger problem than it currently admits and its credibility may be at risk. Policy would have to do some serious heavy lifting with bigger incremental steps than the initial 25bps moves. Falls in asset prices and possibly even recession would likely follow and, most likely, the policy tightening would be reflected in – eventually – a much stronger dollar. So while many emerging economies are better prepared for our central scenario of gradual rate rises in 2022-2023 than they have been in the past given their real rate and external financing positions, in a scenario of more aggressive Fed rate moves they would likely face much more currency depreciation.

With inflation still rising, they might find themselves having to tighten both fiscal and monetary policy. Recessions risks would become more widespread. Our forecasts: the deteriorating growth-inflation trade-off Our forecasts for global growth in 2021-22 are unchanged from three months ago but with plenty of moving parts, as downgrades to the likes of the eurozone, Russia, Turkey, Poland, South Africa and Brazil are offset by upgrades to many economies in Asia-Pacific, notably India. Our global GDP growth forecast for 2023 has edged higher thanks to marginal upgrades to the US and the eurozone. The revisions to our inflation forecasts are upwards for all three years and to pretty much every economy, although our forecasts for Latin America and CEEMEA have led the charge and by far the smallest increase in inflation forecasts has been within Asia. The risk of outright stagflation – à la the 1970s – may be low but our forecasts reflect a worsening of the growth-inflation trade-off in 2022.