【英文】瑞信报告：2022中国科技行业展望，优先考虑新能源汽车和元宇宙的受益者（147页）

英文研究报告 2022年01月26日 07:16 管理员

NEV and Metaverse lead upgrade trends. NEV is an inevitable megatrend with rising electrification and information technology. The CS Global Autos team forecasts the global NEV (PHEV+EV) sales volume to see a 31% CAGR over 2020-30 to reach 44.7 mn units in 2030, and China NEV sales volume to see a 29% CAGR to 16.0 mn units over 2020- 30 and reach a 66% penetration rate, accounting for 36% of global NEV sales. We have identified seven segments that benefit from this mega trend, including (1) auto display panel, (2/3) ADAS (camera/LiDAR), (4) connectivity, (5) glass enhancement, (6) semiconductor, and (7) PCB, totaling potential TAMs of US$140 bn/US$53 bn globally/in China. The second key theme is Metaverse which drives AR/VR demand, and we forecast AR/VR headset to grow at a 48% CAGR from 2020 to reach 42 mn units by 2025.

Apple's MR/AR could be released in 2H22 or 1H23 as well as Sony Gen2 PSVR as positive drivers on top of Meta Oculus. Risk-reward in A-share tech amid macro/regulatory risks. We see A-share tech coverage trading at the historical average of 27.5x F12M consensus P/E vs H-share tech trading at a +1 SD historical average of 21.0x (led by Sunny Optical likely), suggesting attractive risk-reward valuation in A-share tech, given structural growth opportunities. Our top picks. These include Will Semi (auto, chip tightness) for semis; Sunny Optical (iOS/auto/ARVR), Luxshare (iOS content gain/MR), GoerTek (upgrade to an OUTPERFROM on better ARVR outlook), and Lens Tech (auto/iOS content gain) for hardware/components; BOE (foldable, auto, mini-LED) for display; Inspur (server) and ZTE (5G) for infrastructure; and Yonyou (SaaS) behind the Digital China push. We also upgrade O-film to NEUTRAL on the auto rerate, and downgrade both SCC and Tianma to NEUTRAL on valuation and share loss, respectively.