【英文】伦敦经济和商业研究中心报告：乌克兰与俄罗斯冲突的成本（41页）

英文研究报告 2022年02月22日 10:34 管理员

As shown in Figure 2, Ukrainian GDP has been highly volatile since 2008. After facing a deep slump due to the global financial crisis, the economy had been recovering strongly in the following three years, with real GDP growth of 4.1%, 5.5%, and 4.1% in 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. The economy stagnated in 2013, however, at least partly due to the imposition of trade sanctions from Russia and a period of high political instability.13 The impacts of the conflict then became more apparent, with the loss of Crimea and Russia’s military interventions in Donbas, leading to a 10.1% GDP contraction in 2014. This was followed by a further contraction of 9.8% in 2015, as hostilities continued and confidence in the Ukrainian economy slumped. The 10.1% contraction in GDP is larger than that reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), since the IMF data excludes Crimea and Sevastopol from Ukrainian GDP from 2012 onwards, whereas Cebr’s estimates include Crimea and Sevastopol up until 2013.

Several years of recovery at moderate pace were then witnessed between 2016 and 2019, before output contracted once again as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.In formulating a counterfactual case for how the Ukrainian economy might have performed in the absence of the conflict, we have considered a range of pre-conflict forecasts. These forecasts cover the 2012-2014 editions of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, as well as Cebr’s World Economic League Table over the same time horizon. These forecasts are shown in Appendix 1. In 2012, the Ukrainian economy had been expected to grow at a trend rate of around 3.5%. However, by 2013, the economy was experiencing considerable volatility, due in part to Russian economic measures directed against Ukraine. This brought about a slower expected growth rate. Therefore, any counterfactual scenario based on these forecasts will already account for the general macroeconomic instability faced by the Ukrainian economy prior to the conflict.