【英文】HSBC报告：中国物流行业：共同富裕对该行业意味着什么（75页）

英文研究报告 2022年03月17日 06:59 管理员

SF Intra-city: We are above consensus on net profit for 2021e, as we are optimistic on SF Intra-city’s order mix improvement. Our 2022-23e net profit estimates are RMB19m-60m below consensus, but the numbers are relatively minor compared with its revenue level, so our estimates are basically in-line with market consensus. We are confident about SF Intra-city’s profitability in the long term. SF Holding: We are above consensus on revenue for 2021-23e for SF Holding, as we have consolidated Kerry Logistics Network’s (636 HK, HKD19.98, latest report) financial data.

Our 2021e net profit estimate is above market consensus, as we factor in the positive impact of the asset disposal. Our 2022-23e net profit estimates are below consensus, as we factor in the cost hike and product mix deterioration, and we think it takes time for recovery. Yunda and YTO: We are above consensus on Yunda and YTO’s net profits for 2021-23e, as we believe the market underestimates the profit resilience from further price hikes in express delivery.China's macro economy may slow further in 2022e.

If consumption and online retail remain sluggish, it could pose a downward risk to the industry growth. Some of the new policies on protecting workers' rights and interests are not fully clear, as are the specific measures required to achieve common prosperity. Although we believe the government would take the economic situation and strength of logistic companies into consideration, if labour costs and social security expenses exceed corporate budgets under the new policies, this could pose a downside risk for the profitability of the industry.  The omicron variant continues to spread globally, and there continue to be bouts in China. Severe pandemic or strict related controls would impact transportation and last-mile delivery.