【英文】乌克兰冲突报告：乌克兰危机对世界经济和关键部门的影响（176页）

英文研究报告 2022年04月14日 07:04 管理员

While first and foremost a humanitarian crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine risks adding materially to existing economic and supply challenges for the global economy, just as the world was emerging from the shadow of the COVID pandemic. The world’s financial system is in a fragile state after two years of pandemicinduced disruption, with many economies facing high debt burdens and the challenge of attempting to normalise interest rates without derailing the recovery. Increasingly punitive sanctions on Russian banks, leading companies, and prominent individuals, including the restriction of certain Russian banks from access to the SWIFT payments system - have precipitated a collapse in both the Russian stock exchange and the rouble exchange rate.

Russia is likely to see the most severe hit to GDP growth beyond Ukraine itself as a result of the current crisis. For the global economy, the magnitude of the impact will likely reflect exposure to Russia and Ukraine in terms of overall trade as well as, crucially, for energy supplies. Existing tensions in the global economy will be heightened. Inflation rates likely to stay higher for longer and to then fall more slowly, with additional pressure on energy and commodity prices (with maize and wheat also more in focus). Policy responses may be more muted, as central banks balance inflationary pressures with risks to economic growth, suggesting an easing of plans to tighten currently ultra-loose monetary policy.