【英文】兰德报告：八大新兴技术军用前景分析（85页）

英文研究报告 2022年05月20日 07:53 管理员

To assess this issue, the project team assessed both whether and how each technology could combine with another to have an effect on deterrence, with particular emphasis on identifying specific causal routes through which such combinations could affect deterrence. It is important to note that the eight selected technologies can combine in nearly limitless ways to affect deterrence, so there are far more possible permutations than the ones discussed below. These are merely the combinations we chose to highlight because they seem to fall into the category of most likely and most dangerous. We did not assess how the deployment of technologies affects the need for and utility of others at a later point in time. Each of these combinations was analyzed in isolation.

Related to the competitor-specific analysis in Lens 3, our assessment found that both China and Russia see the value in investing at the intersection of several technology domains to alter power dynamics. Both Russian and Chinese military sources have discussed ways in which various emerging technologies could combine to achieve effects greater than the sum of their parts. We incorporated these findings in our general assessment of the combination effects of the technologies.Our analysis suggested that combinations of emerging technologies can both increase the lethality of current attack vectors and introduce new ones, resulting in an increased likelihood of hostile actions. Mixes of emerging technologies can also provide an increased ability to reach new or existing targets, which can in turn increase the probability of a first strike. This can be true both in kinetic terms (e.g., using hypersonic systems to reach new targets) or virtual (e.g., using electronic or information warfare capabilities).