【英文】新美国安全中心报告：危险海峡，未来台湾冲突的战争模拟（20页）

英文研究报告 2022年07月07日 08:56 管理员

The Red team sought to force Taipei to capitulate before Blue’s forces could recover from Red’s opening blow. Red aimed to decapitate Taiwan’s leadership, launch punitive strikes to erode Taiwan’s will to resist, and cut of communications to the island to reduce Taipei’s strategic messaging aimed at rallying international support. Alongside these strategic attacks, Red sought to rapidly ferry ground forces to beaches and ports in northern Taiwan, in addition to airdropping forces in the same region, to capture Taipei as quickly as possible. Red believed this would generate enough momentum to conquer the northern half of the island and compel the rest of the country to surrender. The United States and its allies would then face the unpalatable prospect of rolling back Red’s territorial gains, which would be incredibly difcult—if not impossible— and ultimately conclude that it was not worth the cost.16 Red’s quick victory proved elusive.

Enabled by its control of the skies over Taiwan, Red amphibious, airborne, and air assault invasion forces made it ashore, but encountered ferce resistance.17 Red forces occupied a beach and airfeld north of Taipei but sufered heavy losses. When the game ended, Red’s invasion force still had to traverse mountainous and heavily defended terrain to reach the capital. Moreover, Red also had to fnd a way to provide fuel, food, and ammunition to its forces ashore while Blue forces attacked its vulnerable lines of communication.18 Ultimately, neither side was able to decisively win in the initial week of fghting. Both Red and Blue had expended large portions of their inventories of precision long-range missiles, lost many fghter aircraft, and needed to resupply and rearm forces under attack. However, Red still had civilian assets it could use to continue its cross-strait invasion, aided by its geographic proximity to Taiwan.