【英文】IRENA报告：中国碳中和之路：可再生能源的视角和角色（56页）

英文研究报告 2022年07月22日 07:48 管理员

China’s goal of carbon peaking and neutrality requires fundamental changes in how the country both produces and consumes energy, and this will be no more evident than in fnal demand. There is a pressing need to determine how to best link rapidly expanding clean energy supplies with demand, and it is increasingly clear that the electrifcation of end-use sectors should be the frst choice to make this possible. Electrifcation as a primary route for decarbonising end-use sectors Dramatic reductions in the cost of renewable electricity (notably wind and solar PV) open up new cost-efective options for transport, industry and buildings. For a high proportion of enduse energy demand (greater than 50%), direct electrifcation will be the most efcient solution. The remainder will need to be addressed through the use of clean fuels and some limited legacy fossil fuel use (mostly natural gas). IRENA is working with the State Grid Corporation of China to assess the potential of electrifcation with renewables.

The work shows that electrifcation will have an increasingly important role in the world’s energy transition, given the rapid technology development and the reduction in generation costs of renewable electricity. The technologies for a variety of end-use sectors to better use electricity – including electromobility, electric heating, hydrogen via electrolysis, and production of synthetic fuels – have been, albeit at various stages of development, progressing fast.While increasing the pace of electrifcation will be critical, a key message from the work of IRENA and State Grid is the need to avoid un-co-ordinated electrifcation, which could threaten to increase system peaks and cause issues for transmission and distribution networks. Smart electrifcation enabled by good planning and digitalisation will be a necessity to reduce peak loads, thus minimising the need for investments in enhancing grid options or adding more generation capacity. Increasing the fexibility of the loads to better match the outputs of variable renewables would help to increase the use of variable renewable electricity in the power mix and allow other sectors to use renewable electricity. This can be achieved through, for example, load shifting, smart technologies, and the production and storage of green hydrogen.