【英文】国际货币基金组织报告：全球经济增长放缓愈加明显（27页）

英文研究报告 2022年12月05日 07:03 管理员

The global economy has weakened amid a materializing of downside risks. Three key factors are weighing on the global growth outlook: (i) persistently high and broad-based inflation is necessitating a tightening of monetary policy in many major economies; (ii) the growth momentum in China remains weak amid intermittent pandemic lockdowns and the worsening property market crisis; and (iii) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and associated sanctions have contributed to continued supply disruptions, rising food insecurity, and energy concerns—particularly in Europe amid a sharp reduction in Russian gas supply. At the same time, growing global fragmentation pressures are likely to destroy part of the gains from decades of increasing globalization. Add to this a confluence of downside risks. A worsening energy crisis in Europe would severely harm growth and raise inflation.

Prolonged high inflation could require larger-than-anticipated policy interest hikes, further tightening of global financial conditions, and increasing risks of a sovereign debt crisis for vulnerable economies. Increasingly severe weather events would continue to harm growth across the globe. Bringing down inflation is a key policy priority, as is addressing elevated debt levels while protecting the most vulnerable groups. The persistence of multiple global supply-side shocks also necessitates a tighter policy stance to facilitate adjustment to the new state of the world.Monetary policy is appropriately expected to continue to tighten in most G-20 countries, although the extent of tightening is country specific. Where inflation remains high and labor markets tight, higher interest rates are needed. In a few cases where inflationary pressures and signs of overheating are absent, central banks can be more cautious and allow a more expansionary stance. In all economies, careful communication is crucial, especially amid the highly uncertainty outlook.