【英文】大摩报告：2023年全球宏观经济展望报告（196页）

In addition,as investors traverse a year sure to be filled with unexpected traps and pitfalls, their focus will increasingly shift to the outlook for 2024 – when our economists expect central banks to start easing policy again (see Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). The prospect of easier central bank policies will bring with itnewfound demand for riskfree bond market duration, just at a time when government bond supply – after adjusting for central bank activity – is falling from its decade-longhighs seen in 2021 and 2022. Of course, central bank balance sheets will continue to shrink in 2023, but investors shouldn't be intimidated. The reductions our economists forecast are already well understood by market participants and largely in-the-price already. In addition, for the largest central bank balance sheets, the reductions we forecast simply take them back to the pre-pandemic trend by the end of 2023(see Exhibit 3). 

The Fed and ECB balance sheets will be $7 trillion or more at the end of next year and only fall slightly more from there in 2024 (see Exhibit 4).Of course, for central bank policies and bond markets alike, the path of inflation and associated expectations will exert the most influence. Investors remain deeply skeptical of the decline that economists forecast for consumer prices. If economists,after two years of underestimating inflation,end up forecasting it correctly or even overestimating it, the meager bond market rally we forecast will end up as more than just a countertrend rally. In our view, risks are skewed to inflation falling faster than expected,even if it doesn't stabilize at or below pre-pandemic run rates. Given the policy tightening put in place this past year,economic activity should slow further. Our economists forecast GDP growth in the G10 slowing to a standstill, while growth in EM fares better (see Exhibit 5).