【英文】国家公共政策研究院报告：中国的公共外交和国际新秩序（103页）

A battle is underway over which system will dominate the world in the coming several decades. One possibility, although increasingly at risk, is a continuation of Western prominence with its emphasis on democracy, rules-based social order, free-market financial networks, and personal freedoms. The other most likely possibility is a world order dominated by China, with its top-down, strict dictation by the Communist Party of China, with emphases on control of both corporate and individual thought and behavior. There are multiple dimensions to this struggle, including competition for military superiority, infrastructure control, access to natural resources, diplomatic dominance, and control of cyberspace. 

The system that “wins” will be the one that is most widely adopted, respected, and adhered to by the international community. China is rapidly establishing its new international system in regions worldwide. Two vital tools in this campaign are public diplomacy and active measures (deceptive influence operations) to gain support from foreign publics and leaders for its projects and power projection abroad. This Occasional Paper argues that public diplomacy and active measures will be central to whether a Chinese-dominated system replaces the Western-led one. If the West is to succeed, which is still possible, it will have to up its own public diplomacy efforts, while continuing to avoid using active measures, not only to tell the West’s story better, but also to ensure that the Western alternative is competitive.