【英文】世界银行报告：世界经济展望（183页）

In many EMDEs, inflation is either accelerating  once again or has stabilized at high levels (figure 1.5.D). Some common responses to recent shocks,  including (tacit or explicit) indexation of wages to  inflation and increases in untargeted fossil fuel  subsidies, may have added to generalized inflation  pressures (IEA 2023b). A protracted period of  high inflation could be especially challenging for  EMDEs, where inflation expectations are generally  less stable than in advanced economies and more  influenced by current inflation rates (Kamber,  Mohanty, and Morley 2020). Consensus-derived  expectations for EMDE inflation one-year-ahead  moved up substantially as inflation initially picked up, but declined more slowly as inflation decelerated last year.  The distribution of short-term inflation forecasts  across EMDEs has also widened markedly, with  double-digit inflation expected in more than a  quarter of EMDEs (figure 1.5.E). 

Long-term  forecasts suggest that EMDEs with inflationtargeting central banks may have an advantage in  durably bringing inflation down. Five years ahead,  only one-in-twenty inflation-targeting EMDEs is  projected to have inflation more than 1 percentage  point above 2010-19 average levels, compared  with about one-in-six non-inflation-targeting  EMDEs (figure 1.5.F).  The reopening of China’s economy is not expected to have a material impact on global inflation. While strengthening activity will put upward  pressure on domestic inflation, this will likely be  limited by slack in China’s economy, including in  the labor market. In addition, the recovery in  China is projected to be less commodity-intensive  than in past episodes of growth accelerations, and  therefore less likely to boost global prices.