【英文】世界银行报告：世界经济展望（183页）

英文研究报告 2023年07月04日 07:57 管理员

In many EMDEs, inflation is either accelerating once again or has stabilized at high levels (figure 1.5.D). Some common responses to recent shocks, including (tacit or explicit) indexation of wages to inflation and increases in untargeted fossil fuel subsidies, may have added to generalized inflation pressures (IEA 2023b). A protracted period of high inflation could be especially challenging for EMDEs, where inflation expectations are generally less stable than in advanced economies and more influenced by current inflation rates (Kamber, Mohanty, and Morley 2020). Consensus-derived expectations for EMDE inflation one-year-ahead moved up substantially as inflation initially picked up, but declined more slowly as inflation decelerated last year. The distribution of short-term inflation forecasts across EMDEs has also widened markedly, with double-digit inflation expected in more than a quarter of EMDEs (figure 1.5.E).

Long-term forecasts suggest that EMDEs with inflationtargeting central banks may have an advantage in durably bringing inflation down. Five years ahead, only one-in-twenty inflation-targeting EMDEs is projected to have inflation more than 1 percentage point above 2010-19 average levels, compared with about one-in-six non-inflation-targeting EMDEs (figure 1.5.F). The reopening of China’s economy is not expected to have a material impact on global inflation. While strengthening activity will put upward pressure on domestic inflation, this will likely be limited by slack in China’s economy, including in the labor market. In addition, the recovery in China is projected to be less commodity-intensive than in past episodes of growth accelerations, and therefore less likely to boost global prices.