【英文】全球经济展望报告（55页）

While the low-hanging fruit in trade liberalization has been  picked, headwinds have also risen. Rising geopolitical  tensions have led to a greater focus on political and national  security goals in international trade. Trade restrictions –  including tariff and non-tariff barriers – have increased  sharply since 2018, with a discernible rise in measures  targeting services (see Chart 2). A stark example is the  bilateral trade relationship between the U.S. and China. The  average U.S. tariff rate vis-a-vis China increased from around  3% to 19% since 2018, with a corresponding rise from 8%  to 21% on the part of China. Other recent policies – such  as the recent EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism –  seek to reshore production which was previously lost due  to manufacturing offshoring to avoid domestic carbon taxes  (also known as ‘carbon leakage’). There has also been a surge in government subsidies.  

For example, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, worth an  estimated USD 369 billion, aims to incentivize firms to  manufacture green energy components domestically  or in countries which have a free-trade agreement  with the U.S. The U.S. Creating Helpful Incentives to  Produce Semiconductors and Science (CHIPS) Act, worth  USD 280 billion, aims to boost domestic semiconductor  manufacturing capacity through a wide range of subsidies  and tax incentives. This sparked a response from the  European Union in the form of the European Chips Act  (worth USD 47 billion), while similar packages were  introduced by China, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan to  support their respective domestic semiconductor industries.