【英文】安永报告：2024年地缘战略展望：如何在持续的地缘政治复杂性中繁荣发展（38页）

英文研究报告 2024年01月22日 15:11 管理员

Prepare for a dynamic sanctions environment. The geopolitical multiverse is likely to lead to the US and EU to increasingly focus on compliance with their sanctions on Russia, particularly in third-party countries. And given concerns about Iran’s role in the ongoing violence in the Middle East, the US and others may strengthen enforcement of current sanctions on Iran or impose new ones. This dynamic sanctions environment could further increase the cost of oil and gas globally. It will also create compliance challenges for many companies. Executives should ensure their compliance teams have sufficient monitoring and execution resources to avoid running afoul of sanctions.

Adapt corporate treasury strategies. As the world moves from a more unipolar to a more multipolar system, international transactions are following suit. The share of US dollars in central banks’ currency reserves hit 59% at the end of 2020 (its lowest level in 25 years) and has since remained near that share according to the IMF. The Chinese renminbi is already used for a majority of China’s cross-border trades, according to Nikkei Asia, and other emerging markets are encouraging the use of their own currencies as well. Companies need to take these evolving foreign exchange dynamics into account when planning their treasury holdings and managing exchange rate risk.