【英文】国际政治研究所报告：2024年的世界：全球大分化（65页）

英文研究报告 2024年01月23日 10:01 管理员

This contract is convenient for Putin, but it is also convenient for the tens of millions of passive conformists who make up his support base. But if these conformists are taken out of their comfort zone, even their behaviour can become unpredictable. That is why it is more profitable for Putin, even after the elections, to continue the “background” war with further militarisation of the consciousness of his subjects, but without the physical involvement of the majority in his military expansionism. The ideological involvement of this majority in his imperial project of “returning and strengthening” Russian lands will suffice. “VICTORY” AND FRAGMENTATION This will not require Putin to change his foreign policy line (if what he is doing can in principle be called foreign policy), which boils down to waiting to see if the fragmentation of the united front of the West, and indeed of the world, will lead to what he might call his “victory.” It has become a banality to believe that the Russian autocrat will wait patiently for the results of the presidential elections in various countries and, above all, in the United States. And besides, he will hope for the correction of Europe. But, first, the experience of Donald Trump’s presidency shows that despite the mutual compliments of two extravagant leaders, relations between the U.S. and Russia have only degenerated in a practical sense.