【英文】国际政治研究所报告：2024年的世界：全球大分化（65页）

This contract is convenient for Putin, but it is also  convenient for the tens of millions of passive  conformists who make up his support base.  But if these conformists are taken out of their  comfort zone, even their behaviour can become  unpredictable. That is why it is more profitable  for Putin, even after the elections, to continue the  “background” war with further militarisation of the  consciousness of his subjects, but without the  physical involvement of the majority in his military  expansionism. The ideological involvement of this  majority in his imperial project of “returning and  strengthening” Russian lands will suffice.  “VICTORY” AND FRAGMENTATION This will not require Putin to change his foreign  policy line (if what he is doing can in principle be  called foreign policy), which boils down to waiting  to see if the fragmentation of the united front of  the West, and indeed of the world, will lead to  what he might call his “victory.” It has become a  banality to believe that the Russian autocrat will  wait patiently for the results of the presidential  elections in various countries and, above all, in the  United States. And besides, he will hope for the  correction of Europe.  But, first, the experience of Donald Trump’s  presidency shows that despite the mutual  compliments of two extravagant leaders,  relations between the U.S. and Russia have only  degenerated in a practical sense.