【英文】汇丰银行报告：“一带一路”的全球影响Belt & Road The global impact (50P)

英文研究报告 2019年09月25日 08:22 管理员

Although the lines are blurred when estimating about how big the pool of BRI investment has been, total FDI from China has the potential to be far greater in the coming years: Fitch estimates4 that up to USD900bn of projects were in the pipeline as of early 2017, while the largest estimate, from Professor William Laurance of James Cook University in Australia, suggests that the total spend by 2050 could be USD8trn of investment5 . It is also worth noting that this project provides some impetus to global investment for which there are not many drivers right now, not least because of ongoing uncertainty over trade wars. Moreover, as we discuss below, a disproportionate number of the beneficiaries of the BRI are in low-income countries where the ability to pay for urgently needed infrastructure is greatly reduced, though this can of course pose its own challenges as well as the prospect of higher growth potential. The key regions and the biggest projects There are already more than 1,800 projects attributed to the BRI. Based on China’s Belt and Road Portal, there are 138 partner countries, but some others (such as India) have China-funded projects that go through or are located in them. Given the trade channels surrounding the Silk Road that China has targeted with the initiative, a few parts of the world dominate the lists: notably ASEAN, CIS, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Eastern Europe. There are now projects being attributed to the BRI in Italy and Chile and while other Latin American countries have also signed up to the initiative, some large economies in Asia-Pacific have not, including Japan and Australia. The value of these projects varies greatly and the impact of some is huge. For instance: thanks to the opening of the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway6 in January 2018, the travel time between the two cities has been shortened from seven days to 12 hours.

Refinitiv’s comprehensive database – the Belt and Road Connect app – has collated all the projects that have been signed as part of the BRI. This is defined as a project where there has been a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) or Joint Statement of Co-operation between China & Host Country and the project is disclosed on an official Chinese BRI Source (BRI Portals, State Media) or disclosed as a "BRI Project" by an officially recognised source in the host country. Within Refinitiv’s project list, we can look at some of the biggest projects that are classified within the Belt & Road in table 7. Country concentration The database also allows us to see a rough scale of the BRI in each country. When thinking about the value of BRI projects, two figures are important: the project size and the Chinese investment. In some cases the Chinese investment is unknown, in some it is minimal and in some cases it is given in detail; many of the projects we look at in more detail in tables 9 and 10 are 85%-funded from a Chinese source and 15% from a local one. Refinitiv’s BRI connect database includes information on just shy of 3,000 projects linked to the BRI, with roughly 1,300 of them officially BRI projects while the remainder are where there is some form of Chinese involvement. The value of these projects ranges from a few million US dollars right up to USD200bn – but that is the total value of the project and may not fully reflect the degree of Chinese involvement. Some countries have many BRI projects listed – such as the 192 listed in Egypt, 108 in Russia and 64 in Qatar, while one single USD1.1bn project in Montenegro is worth roughly 20% of national GDP. India, for example, has no official BRI projects, but 94 with Chinese involvement.