【英文】摩根士丹利报告：中国城市化2.0：大湾区向低碳能源转型的受益者们Beneficiaries of the Greater M Bay Area's Transition to Lo（97P）

英文研究报告 2019年11月01日 06:53 管理员

Challenges of GBA power system today: The bulk of fossil fuel supplies in GBA (coal and gas) are imported, and with W2E power supply accounting for 25% of supply, during peak demand periods, GBA may incur temporary power shortages. Due to the power output volatility, the W2E power source and hydropower exposes GBA to seasonal volatility. The high cost of importing gas also affected gas power output, and very scarce land has slowed down power network development. As pressure on air quality increases, coal control and energy efficiency have prohibited coal power development, but GBA's clean energy development lags behind that of other bay areas in the world.

With recent progress on offshore oil and gas fields in South China, domestic supply may increase to 10bcm by 2020 and 20bcm by 2030. In terms of gas import infrastructure, Guangdong currently has import capacity of 51bcm per annum, including 24.8bcm in LNG terminals, 14bcm in piped gas, 10bcm in Guangdong offshore gas and 2bcm in LNG peaking storage facility. Power imports from West China – Yunnan/Tibet: West to East Power is a national policy of China and achieves the aim of raising energy supply security, improving the environment, and optimizing energy structure in receiving provinces. Within China Southern Grid, Guangdong and GBA have been receiving power from Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan, and non-CSG projects such as Three Gorges and CRP's Hunan Liyujiang coal power plants. In 2018, total W2E power to Guangdong capacity is 40GW, and will increase to 45GW by 2020 as Wudongde is commissioned (5GW out of 10.2GW will send to Guangdong, 3GW to Guangxi). Yunnan's hydropower resources are almost entirely developed, and so China is aiming to utilize hydropower resources in Tibet.

Tibet has 140GW of hydropower resources and by 2030, export potential could reach 20GW. In addition, as Yunnan and Guizhou continue to develop (Guizhou may cut power exports to Guangdong by 5GW in 2030), its power exports may decrease. This CSPG planning expects the entire 20GW of Tibetan hydropower to be supplied to GBA by 2030, with total W2E power to Guangdong at 60GW by 2035, an increase of 50% from 40GW in 2018. Another alternative to Tibetan hydropower is to import power from energy power bases in Northwest China. However, we see this alternative as high-cost (long distance of transmission lines) and highercarbon (mix of coal, wind, and solar power). Also, power from Northwest China should be sold to Eastern or Northern China in State Grid Corporation areas instead of CSPG areas. The plan is to import from Northwestern power bases from 2025.