【英文】J.P. 摩根报告：亚太地区汽车行业报告：后COVID19时代的汽车世界（30页）

英文研究报告 2020年07月06日 06:44 管理员

Growth has shown signs of slowing since March due to the impact of COVID-19, and the number of Times Car vehicles that Park24 owns in its mobility business was down 1.0% YoY in March and down 4.9% in April, recording the first YoY declines in five years. We believe this reflects a decrease in utilization rates as a result of stayat-home orders and the reluctance of users to share things with an unspecified number of people. We believe we need to pay particular attention to trends in users of car sharing services, which were previously viewed as a growth market.

Domestic new car registrations fell 29% YoY in April, deteriorating sharply, but used car registrations were down just 8% YoY. According to USS, average auction contract prices were down 17% YoY at ¥565,000 in April, but weekly used car prices in North America, which serve as a leading indicator, have recovered to near levels before COVID-19. In addition, wholesale prices have led the decline in US used car prices, due partly to the sale of rental cars at steep discounts, and given that the decline in retail prices has been moderate, we believe the used car market is being supported by final retail demand. In Japan, we see growth potential for used cars as demand shifts from car sharing services to personally owned vehicles (POV), and we consider the modest decline compared with new car registrations as a sign of high POV demand.

In addition, motorcycle sales volume has outperformed automobile sales in terms of YoY trends, in line with results briefing comments by some automakers that motorcycle demand has been high since the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan (FebruaryApril). In particular, trends for 50cc and smaller motorcycles have improved even compared with before COVID-19, which we believe is likely to have some positive impact. In ASEAN, motorcycle sales volumes ha e been little affected by COVID-19, with Indonesia down 3.2% YoY at 561,739 units in April and Vietnam down 3.0% at 731,077 units in January-March. As people avoid travelling on public transportation, we continue to watch the possibility that demand may continue to expand for motorcycles, which are lower priced than automobiles.