【英文】HSBC报告：全球宏观经济：不怎么隆重的重新开张（114页）

Sitting in Europe or in most of Asia, you could be forgiven for thinking that the worst point of the  COVID-19 pandemic has passed. It would be easy to see the number of COVID-19 infections  and resultant deaths steadily edging down, and in some places dropping to close to zero. But  looking across the world, there are many places where the curve is a long way from flattening  and even starting to accelerate. In Latin America, as of late June there were twice as many new  cases on a daily basis than during the peak in Europe. In Asia – the number of new cases in  Indonesia and the Philippines is still on an upward trend although numbers are still low  compared to elsewhere in the world. India is more of a concern. And now some places that  were barely on the radar are seeing huge numbers of cases: Peru and Chile have now had  more infections than either Italy or Spain while Saudi Arabia has had more than France.

California stand out (chart 2), particularly as the number of cases is rising more quickly amongst  younger people. In Texas, 60% of cases are now amongst the under-50s and in Florida the  average age of positive cases has been dropping since the beginning of May (chart 3),  presumably reflecting less fear among younger members as social-distancing measures are  eased. The acceleration in the number of infections is particularly concerning, and it is likely that  not only could further re-opening be delayed (as is happening in some US states) but renewed  restrictions could be introduced – perhaps on a more localised basis – in many parts of the  world where the picture is deteriorating.

As lockdowns in many parts of the world have been easing, it’s no surprise that much of the  data across the world have picked up off their record lows. Flash PMIs for June rose again and  high frequency data in terms of mobility and spending have recovered somewhat. But that  recovery is very uneven across the world. Google’s mobility data shows that while the amount of  time spent at retail and recreational venues has increased in all of the economies in chart 4, the  pace of recovery has varied dramatically. Some, such as New Zealand and Norway, have seen  activity levels rebound very quickly, but others much less so, either due to continued lockdowns  (such as Argentina) or very slow easing of restrictions such as the UK.